Rolling a fair four-sided die and plotting the running average after each roll: it wanders at first, then settles onto the expectation 2.5 — the population mean. The shaded band is plus or minus one standard error of the sample mean, not a bound that every run must stay inside.

Watch the running average settle

A fair four-sided die. Its long-run average was decided when the die was made — the rolls only reveal it.

rolls so far 0 running average target E = 2.5
1 2 3 4 E[D] = 2.5 mean ± one standard error (shrinks with n) 0 20 roll count →

How often each face has come up — they even out as n grows:

1 · 0
2 · 0
3 · 0
4 · 0