A calculator for a simplified task in which every step must succeed and failures are not repaired.
When every step must succeed
Assume each step has the same success chance given success so far, and one failed step ends the task. Then the chance of finishing is p multiplied by itself n times. This is a model you can explore, not a benchmark of an actual agent.
step 1step 20
35.8%chance the whole task finishes correctly
13most steps with at least a 50% chance of success
per-step reliability compared over 20 steps
| if one step is right… | 20 steps in a row | expected successes per 100 runs |
|---|
Checks help when they enable recovery. Dividing 20 steps into four groups of five gives the same product: (p⁵)⁴ = p²⁰. Detecting and repairing an error changes the assumptions; this calculator does not model that recovery.